... gotta know when to fold'em ... (by Kenny Rogers)
I must confess and make a disclaimer that growing up in Latin America the only thing I really knew about Kenny Rogers was the sound of his raspy voice and the fact that it sounded like as if he was a wise man giving advice; sure the tunes were also amusing, I must add, and though I attempted to "memorize" the lyrics, without any preconceived knowledge of the English language I was doomed to simply repeat sounds without meaning and knowing what he was talking about; and that's how I learned and enjoyed the song The Gambler.
Years have passed by and I have learned a word or two in English, enough to understand the lyrics of the song; furthermore, I have learned to play a good game of Texas Hold'em and have come to appreciate the meaning of the song more fully than in my old "memorizing" days.
In one occasion, a young player sitting at a poker table made this astonishing comment that he was quitting university to become a professional poker player. I was not just surprised but rather upset somehow and I didn't know why. The words of that song resonated to me and during one of the breaks in that tournament I told the young player, you sure are a very good player, actually a great one and I have no doubt you will do well, just remember that life is a poker game too and the skills you have learned at many tables you ought to apply them in life if you are to succeed at this game. You get a hand and you gotta play it, I remember telling him, I feel that a university degree is like getting an ace in your hand, it is a great starting hand in itself and so on and so forth ... I think he got my groove because weeks after I saw him again and he shook my hand and said: you are right I want an ace on my hand, so I am back in classes. I am glad I had heard The Gambler, so glad and so glad that young man heard me, so glad that I can compare that game to life just like Kenny did.
Back to the game. Poker consists of decisions we must make or as Kenny Rogers says, "you gotta know when to hold'em, know when to fold'em ..." If I was to give a lecture on poker this will not be neither the right place nor will I be the proper lecturer as I am not an expert in poker but I sure like to share my thoughts on knowing when to hold them and knowing when to fold them as that is truly the key to poker as I see it and the key in business and in life too.
Perhaps one of the greatest conflicts we run in our minds, when it comes to making decisions, is the distinct opposition between the optimism and the pesismism that we feel, between dreams and reality, between hope and facts; the pull between what we wish so deeply and what we often merely have.
Let me quote late Vice Admiral James Stockdale (Stockdale Paradox) and his observations on how the most optimistic prisoners were the first ones to die when confronted with the reality of their dreams of freedom being crashed date after date. And on the other end of the spectrum were the pessimists (which also did not fair well) who simply gave up as the future looked so dark that there was no hope for surviving. Who were those that survived? the middle grounded? what does that mean and how do we get there? So according to his observations nor optimism nor pessimism work well but somewhere in between maybe?
It was through developing the resilience of being able to look at the brutal facts ("Good to Great" by Jim Collins) and make the proper decisions, or as Kenny Rogers would say: having developed the ability "to know when to hold'em, and to know when to fold'em." that he and some of the others were able to survive solitary confinement for 8 brutal years before freedom finally arrived.
A purist of poker theory will simply use statistical analysis and concentrate its decision on simple odds; one calculates the odds of hitting the cards one needs and that determines the decision. It is a very objective way, not one that is tainted with hope but rather driven by statistical analysis and probabilities, the resilience to analyze the brutal facts and make decisions with that information and the facts regarding the other players, their possible hands and their behaviours. Players whom decide differently might make a good hand or two but in the long run will always lose.
In business this ability relates to the successful companies that go from good to great says Collins; those who have the ability to observe clearly the flaws and often times decide that this business model does not work, that it is time to fold'em, to count our loses, the ones who end up on top.
How does one get into that frame of mind without being cynical? without losing hope? keeping our hope and faith? without feeling bad for folding?
First by understanding where is that hope needs to be concentrated, it is not on the business model but on oneself or even on the organization, on the fact that yes we can improve and even leave the business model for a new business model and operation. At what point does one decide to close the business? to fold'em? in business because the measurement is profitability it is also simple, when the line of profitability crosses, and loses start accumulating, or even better when one can forecast them and foresee them. Ultimately it is by using the proper measurement that one can come to that conclusion. Whether the measurement might be statistics or profitability or anything we want to measure against.
What about human relationships? are we to ever leave any relationship? if we are, when and how does one determine when to fold'em? If we extrapolate the theories, we should use the same pattern:
First: choose the measurement, whether the measurement is feeling loved, feeling alive, feeling improvement in life, being happy, or having peace at home, or being good parents, or the kids happiness, we choose the measurement first. This is crucial to make determinations and decisions so we can measure accordingly.
Second, if we are to develop resilience and succeed, we must face the brutal facts or else it will only be wishful thinking or simple optimism. I am of the opinion that every human being is capable of change, of course we are! this is like saying statistically the odds of hitting another card are there, yes they are but do you know the odds? if what you are looking for is 2 out of the entire deck your odds are not that good, simply put. Likewise, changes in life require desire and determination (and every so often external help in the form of experts or doctors) and if they are not there, the odds surely are not stacked on your favour either. If loses are already accumulating on the business surely more pep talks will not solve the problems, perhaps it is time to fold'em, to face the brutal facts and decide that the business does not work well as it stands, it is time to fold'em, to restart.
I have (not often, I must admit) folded a pair of aces, yes a pair of aces, perhaps the best starting hand in the game, to a board filled with hearts and no heart on my hand. One of the hardest decisions to make in the game of poker; I have seen many great players fold what it looked like amazing hands but their calculations showed them that their odds were too low and it was time to fold'em. I have seen friends close their businesses, some after the disaster called bankruptcy and some were wise enough to face the brutal facts and simply decide to fold'em before the catastrophe, as the catastrophe was already upon them and they were able to realize it before it hit them. I have also seen the terrible results of the decision to hold'em when hold'em was not the right thing and I have seen the pain accompanied by loss of businesses , of income, of the hand, of a family, of happiness.
The deciding factor in human relationships perhaps relies on the beauty of communication, the capacity we have as human beings to ask questions, to share our thoughts, to simply say, hey, we need to talk and face the brutal facts before we decide to hold'em or to fold'em ... the answer to that question and our previous analysis should suffice to help us make decisions on a personal level, it is not whether my business partners are evil or bad partners, nor whether the other poker players are better than me or worst than me, but it is about the reality of my hand and theirs, about the reality of our business in the market it is and its response to it, about the reality of how our lives are being influenced for good and for happiness, about the reality of how we measure those things we treasure and how we decide when to hold'em and when to fold'em.
Years have passed by and I have learned a word or two in English, enough to understand the lyrics of the song; furthermore, I have learned to play a good game of Texas Hold'em and have come to appreciate the meaning of the song more fully than in my old "memorizing" days.
In one occasion, a young player sitting at a poker table made this astonishing comment that he was quitting university to become a professional poker player. I was not just surprised but rather upset somehow and I didn't know why. The words of that song resonated to me and during one of the breaks in that tournament I told the young player, you sure are a very good player, actually a great one and I have no doubt you will do well, just remember that life is a poker game too and the skills you have learned at many tables you ought to apply them in life if you are to succeed at this game. You get a hand and you gotta play it, I remember telling him, I feel that a university degree is like getting an ace in your hand, it is a great starting hand in itself and so on and so forth ... I think he got my groove because weeks after I saw him again and he shook my hand and said: you are right I want an ace on my hand, so I am back in classes. I am glad I had heard The Gambler, so glad and so glad that young man heard me, so glad that I can compare that game to life just like Kenny did.
Back to the game. Poker consists of decisions we must make or as Kenny Rogers says, "you gotta know when to hold'em, know when to fold'em ..." If I was to give a lecture on poker this will not be neither the right place nor will I be the proper lecturer as I am not an expert in poker but I sure like to share my thoughts on knowing when to hold them and knowing when to fold them as that is truly the key to poker as I see it and the key in business and in life too.
Perhaps one of the greatest conflicts we run in our minds, when it comes to making decisions, is the distinct opposition between the optimism and the pesismism that we feel, between dreams and reality, between hope and facts; the pull between what we wish so deeply and what we often merely have.
Let me quote late Vice Admiral James Stockdale (Stockdale Paradox) and his observations on how the most optimistic prisoners were the first ones to die when confronted with the reality of their dreams of freedom being crashed date after date. And on the other end of the spectrum were the pessimists (which also did not fair well) who simply gave up as the future looked so dark that there was no hope for surviving. Who were those that survived? the middle grounded? what does that mean and how do we get there? So according to his observations nor optimism nor pessimism work well but somewhere in between maybe?
It was through developing the resilience of being able to look at the brutal facts ("Good to Great" by Jim Collins) and make the proper decisions, or as Kenny Rogers would say: having developed the ability "to know when to hold'em, and to know when to fold'em." that he and some of the others were able to survive solitary confinement for 8 brutal years before freedom finally arrived.
A purist of poker theory will simply use statistical analysis and concentrate its decision on simple odds; one calculates the odds of hitting the cards one needs and that determines the decision. It is a very objective way, not one that is tainted with hope but rather driven by statistical analysis and probabilities, the resilience to analyze the brutal facts and make decisions with that information and the facts regarding the other players, their possible hands and their behaviours. Players whom decide differently might make a good hand or two but in the long run will always lose.
In business this ability relates to the successful companies that go from good to great says Collins; those who have the ability to observe clearly the flaws and often times decide that this business model does not work, that it is time to fold'em, to count our loses, the ones who end up on top.
How does one get into that frame of mind without being cynical? without losing hope? keeping our hope and faith? without feeling bad for folding?
First by understanding where is that hope needs to be concentrated, it is not on the business model but on oneself or even on the organization, on the fact that yes we can improve and even leave the business model for a new business model and operation. At what point does one decide to close the business? to fold'em? in business because the measurement is profitability it is also simple, when the line of profitability crosses, and loses start accumulating, or even better when one can forecast them and foresee them. Ultimately it is by using the proper measurement that one can come to that conclusion. Whether the measurement might be statistics or profitability or anything we want to measure against.
What about human relationships? are we to ever leave any relationship? if we are, when and how does one determine when to fold'em? If we extrapolate the theories, we should use the same pattern:
First: choose the measurement, whether the measurement is feeling loved, feeling alive, feeling improvement in life, being happy, or having peace at home, or being good parents, or the kids happiness, we choose the measurement first. This is crucial to make determinations and decisions so we can measure accordingly.
Second, if we are to develop resilience and succeed, we must face the brutal facts or else it will only be wishful thinking or simple optimism. I am of the opinion that every human being is capable of change, of course we are! this is like saying statistically the odds of hitting another card are there, yes they are but do you know the odds? if what you are looking for is 2 out of the entire deck your odds are not that good, simply put. Likewise, changes in life require desire and determination (and every so often external help in the form of experts or doctors) and if they are not there, the odds surely are not stacked on your favour either. If loses are already accumulating on the business surely more pep talks will not solve the problems, perhaps it is time to fold'em, to face the brutal facts and decide that the business does not work well as it stands, it is time to fold'em, to restart.
I have (not often, I must admit) folded a pair of aces, yes a pair of aces, perhaps the best starting hand in the game, to a board filled with hearts and no heart on my hand. One of the hardest decisions to make in the game of poker; I have seen many great players fold what it looked like amazing hands but their calculations showed them that their odds were too low and it was time to fold'em. I have seen friends close their businesses, some after the disaster called bankruptcy and some were wise enough to face the brutal facts and simply decide to fold'em before the catastrophe, as the catastrophe was already upon them and they were able to realize it before it hit them. I have also seen the terrible results of the decision to hold'em when hold'em was not the right thing and I have seen the pain accompanied by loss of businesses , of income, of the hand, of a family, of happiness.
The deciding factor in human relationships perhaps relies on the beauty of communication, the capacity we have as human beings to ask questions, to share our thoughts, to simply say, hey, we need to talk and face the brutal facts before we decide to hold'em or to fold'em ... the answer to that question and our previous analysis should suffice to help us make decisions on a personal level, it is not whether my business partners are evil or bad partners, nor whether the other poker players are better than me or worst than me, but it is about the reality of my hand and theirs, about the reality of our business in the market it is and its response to it, about the reality of how our lives are being influenced for good and for happiness, about the reality of how we measure those things we treasure and how we decide when to hold'em and when to fold'em.
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